The Real Estate Forecast: What's Actually Happening in 2026?
If you've been following the housing news, you've probably noticed a common theme: Canada's real estate market may be starting to turn a corner.
Forecasts from organizations including the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) and TD Economics point to a gradual improvement in market activity, with more momentum possible in the second half of 2026 and healthier price growth anticipated in 2027.
That outlook is encouraging—but it doesn't change the most important factor in any real estate decision: your position today.
Your purchasing power is determined by today's interest rates, income, down payment and financing options. If you're selling, buyers are still making decisions based on current comparable sales, affordability and monthly carrying costs.
The question is not simply whether the market will improve. It's whether you'll be prepared when the right opportunity appears.
Where the market stands today
Sales activity may improve
TRREB expects elevated housing supply and cautious consumer sentiment to keep price growth measured through 2026. However, sales activity could improve later in the year if confidence strengthens and economic conditions remain stable.
For buyers, a more active market could mean more competition and less room to negotiate than earlier in the year.
Mortgage pricing is more competitive than recent highs
Mortgage rates have eased from their previous highs, and competitive fixed-rate options have re-entered the market. While the right rate and mortgage product will always depend on your individual application, improved pricing can make a meaningful difference in monthly payments and overall affordability.
A pre-approval is a practical first step: it helps clarify your budget, gives you a clearer picture of available financing, and helps you act confidently when the right property comes along.
Ontario's enhanced new-housing rebate is now available
Eligible purchasers of qualifying new or substantially renovated homes may be able to recover up to $80,000 of the provincial portion of HST through Ontario's enhanced new-housing rebate.
In general, the enhanced provincial rebate applies to eligible agreements of purchase and sale entered into between April 1, 2026, and March 31, 2027. Additional federal relief may also be available in some circumstances.
Eligibility rules, property values and intended use matter. Before signing an Agreement of Purchase and Sale for a new home, it's important to review your financing and confirm the details with the appropriate tax and legal professionals.
What does this mean for buyers?
Waiting for the "perfect" market can be expensive.
If buyer demand strengthens later this year, today's opportunities may come with more competition and fewer negotiating advantages. Preparing now gives you options, regardless of where the market moves next.
A mortgage pre-approval can help you:
- Understand what you can comfortably afford
- Review financing options before you begin shopping
- Move quickly when the right property becomes available
- Assess whether you may qualify for available rebates or incentive programs
Preparation creates flexibility. It allows you to make decisions based on your goals—not on a headline.
What does this mean for sellers?
An optimistic forecast does not automatically increase a home's value overnight.
Today's buyers remain focused on current comparable sales, affordability and monthly payment costs. The homes achieving the strongest results continue to have three things in common:
- Accurate pricing
- Professional presentation
- A thoughtful marketing strategy
Well-priced homes are still attracting qualified buyers and selling successfully. The key is to position your property for the market that exists today while staying ready to benefit if activity improves.
What should investors be watching?
For investors, shifting borrowing costs and gradually improving confidence may create opportunities that have been limited over the past few years.
Whether you're purchasing your first investment property, refinancing an existing property or expanding a portfolio, financing strategy is just as important as property selection. The right mortgage structure can affect cash flow, flexibility and long-term returns.
Before making a move, consider how your financing aligns with your holding period, risk tolerance and investment objectives.
The bottom line
Forecasts can help us understand where the market may be heading, but they should not make the decision for you.
The right time to buy, sell, refinance or invest depends on your financial goals, timeline and readiness—not on a prediction about next year.
If you're wondering how today's market affects your plans, let's talk. Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, refinancing or exploring an investment opportunity, I can help you understand your financing options and build a mortgage strategy that works for your situation today.
Mortgage Made Better®
Helping Canadians move closer to homeownership with expert mortgage advice, personalized financing solutions and guidance every step of the way.
Market forecasts and rebate programs can change. This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Confirm program eligibility and terms before making a purchase decision.
Sources: TRREB 2026 Market Outlook, TD Economics Provincial Resale Market Outlook, Canada Revenue Agency—Ontario Enhanced New Housing Rebate
