Will the Bank of Canada raise rates again on December 9? Nobody knows yet, including the Bank. The summary of its October deliberations, published November 10, shows Governing Council agreed another increase could be needed, but that it will make decisions "one meeting at a time." If you have a variable-rate mortgage, a HELOC or a renewal coming up, the next four weeks of data matter more than usual.
What the Bank's October deliberations actually said
On October 28 the Bank raised its policy rate by 0.25% to 2.50%. I covered what that meant for payments in my post on the October hike. What's new is the inside view of how Governing Council got there:
- Only two options were on the table: hold at 2.25% or raise to 2.50%. A bigger move wasn't part of the discussion.
- The case for holding: the rise in inflation was concentrated in energy and energy-heavy services like airfares. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in September, core inflation measures were close to 2%, there was still some slack in the job market, and new U.S. tariffs were weighing on growth.
- The case for hiking, which won: gasoline, diesel and heating oil prices were considerably higher than in July and were expected to stay higher, and those costs were expected to spread into other prices. The Bank wanted to get ahead of inflation becoming persistent and broad-based.
- Not everyone read the risks the same way. Members had a "diversity of views" on how fast and how far energy costs will pass through to other prices, and some felt the labour market is stronger than the headline numbers suggest.
- On what comes next, they agreed there could be a need to raise the rate further, and that "uncertainty did not mean inaction."
On housing, the Bank expects residential investment to stay relatively weak, with higher mortgage rates and uncertainty weighing on activity. Consumer spending, on the other hand, was described as solid.
Why the Bank is taking 3% inflation seriously
On November 5, the federal government and the Bank renewed the monetary policy framework for another five years, to December 31, 2031. The target stays at 2%, the midpoint of a 1% to 3% range.
Inflation has been around 3% since April, and the Bank expects it to reach about 3.5% by the end of this year, average 3% in 2027 and get back to 2% around mid-2028. That's a long time at or above the top of the range. My read as a broker: the Bank is signalling it would rather be early than late, so I wouldn't plan your finances around a quick reversal of October's hike.
What another 0.25% would cost
Bank prime rates moved to 4.70% on October 29 (National Bank's announcement, for example). If the Bank raises again on December 9 and lenders pass it on in full, prime would go to 4.95%. Here's what that looks like on a variable mortgage priced at prime minus 0.40%:
| Mortgage balance | Before Oct. hike (4.05%) | Today (4.30%) | If Dec. 9 hike (4.55%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $2,644 | $2,712 | $2,781 (+$69) |
| $750,000 | $3,966 | $4,068 | $4,172 (+$104) |
Two hikes together would add about $138 a month on $500,000 and about $206 on $750,000 compared with before the October hike. On a $100,000 HELOC balance at prime plus 0.50%, interest-only, the monthly interest would rise from about $433 to about $454.
Calculation basis: 25-year amortization, semi-annual compounding, rates shown are assumptions for illustration and not an MMB rate offer. The December 9 scenario assumes a 0.25% increase that lenders pass through in full; the Bank has not decided. Rates are on approved credit (OAC) and subject to change. Illustrative only.
The data to watch before December 9
Statistics Canada's release schedule puts three big reports between now and the decision:
- November 16: Consumer Price Index for October. The number I'll watch most is inflation excluding gasoline, since that tells us whether energy costs are spreading.
- November 30: GDP for the third quarter. The Bank estimated growth of about 2%.
- December 4: Labour Force Survey for November. Unemployment has been around 6.5% for several months.
No single report decides it. But if inflation outside of gasoline starts to climb, the case for another hike gets stronger. If it stays near 2% and the job market softens, the case for a pause gets stronger.
Who this affects
- Adjustable-rate mortgage borrowers: your payment changes the moment prime does.
- Fixed-payment variable borrowers: your payment stays the same, but less of it goes to principal. Know your trigger rate.
- HELOC and other prime-based borrowers: interest costs rise right away.
- Anyone renewing in the next six months: you're choosing between fixed and variable in a market where the Bank is openly undecided.
- Buyers with a pre-approval: a higher rate can lower the amount you qualify for.
What to do now
- Run the "one more hike" number. Take your current balance and rate, add 0.25%, and work out the new payment. If that payment would strain your budget, plan for it now rather than in December.
- Look at your HELOC balance. Prime-based debt is the first to feel a hike. If the balance isn't coming down, ask whether a different structure makes more sense. Our HELOC vs. second mortgage guide explains the trade-offs.
- If you renew in the next few months, start early. In my experience, many lenders allow a renewal to be arranged several months ahead, which can let you secure a rate while you compare. See how we approach it on our mortgage renewal page.
- Don't break a mortgage in a panic. Locking in mid-term can make sense, but a penalty can cost more than a couple of hikes. Get the penalty in writing before you decide.
If you'd like your own numbers worked out before December 9, send me your balance, rate and renewal date and I'll show you what a pause or another hike would mean for you.
Next Bank of Canada rate announcement: December 9, 2026.
Information current as of November 12, 2026; rates and rules change.
Sources
- Bank of Canada, Summary of Governing Council deliberations, October 28, 2026 decision (published November 10, 2026)
- Bank of Canada, "Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%" (October 28, 2026)
- Joint Statement of the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada on the Renewal of the Monetary Policy Framework (November 5, 2026)
- Bank of Canada, Policy interest rate and announcement schedule
- National Bank, prime rate increase to 4.70% (October 28, 2026)
- Statistics Canada, 2026 release schedule
